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Expected Outputs

The scientific core output of ECOCHANGE is a suite of model scenarios and data sets that can be summarized as follows:

  • Tested scenarios of biodiversity patterns, ecosystem boundaries and species distributions sensitive to climate, economic development and land use under current and simulated future conditions;
  • Improved modelling of dynamic ecosystem biogeochemistry and functioning, as well as the spatial re-adjustment of plant functional types (PFTs) or bioclimatic affinity groups under current and simulated future climate, economic and land use scenarios;
  • Historical rates of migration for 72 key plant species of important PFTs derived from novel molecular techniques tested against palaeodata (macrofossils, pollen);
  • Spatially explicit climate, economic and land use change scenarios for the next century (up to 2100).

All three outputs will be used for forecasting the global change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems, thus reducing uncertainties in future projections.

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