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Task 5.2.2. Simulating past migrations

Task lead: Stefan Dullinger, VINCA, Vienna

We illustrate how a cellular-automaton type model that integrates an SDM approach with mechanistically based dispersal kernels can be used to predict spatially and temporarily variable migration speeds of tree species at large spatial scales and how fossil data can be used to validate these predictions. We exemplify the approach using the Holocene spread of silver fir, Abies alba (Mill.), as a case study.

Our main results:

(1) In general, our models predicted Holocene re-immigration rates of fir that were quite similar to those re-constructed from the paleo-record in terms of mean values and value ranges

(2) Despite the good overall fit, the spatio-temporal variation of realized migration speeds across Europe and the past 10 k years was only partly captured by the model.

We suppose that problems with data resolution and climatic reconstructions as well as the lack of an appropriate representation of inter-specific competition are responsible for this partial mismatch.

We conclude that integrating dispersal models with forest gap models or DGVMs will be a further useful step in model development, especially to properly account for the effects of inter-specific interactions.



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