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Task 6.2.2. Global change impact projections

Task lead: Wilfried Thuiller, Centre national de la recherche scientifique, France

Task 6.2.2. aimed at projecting global change impacts on biodiversity at varying spatial, taxonomic and trophic scales. Work within the task dealt for example with the impact of climate change on alpine species distributions, the distribution of invasive species in Europe, the effects of climate change on the European Tree of Life or the impacts of extreme events onto the most exceptional eco-regions of the globe.

Detailed information on the specific results of the multitude of task activities can be found in the publications below.


Beaumont L.J., Pitman A., Perkins S., Zimmermann N.E., Yoccoz N.G. & Thuiller W. (2011). Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2306-2311.

Ben Rais Lasram F., Guilhaumon F., Albouy C., Somot S., Thuiller W. & Mouillot D. (2010). The Mediterranean Sea as a “cul-de-sac” for endemic fishes facing climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 3233–3245.

Dullinger, S., Mang, T., Dirnböck, T., Ertl, S., Gattringer, A., Grabherr, G., Leitner, M. & Hülber, K. 2011: Patch configuration affects alpine plant distribution. Ecography, in press.

Dury M., Hambuckers A., Warnant P., Henrot A., Favre E., Ouberdous M., François L (accepted). Responses of European forest ecosystems to 21st century climate: assessing changes in interannual variability and fire intensity. iForest journal.

Engler, R., Randin, C., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N. E., Araújo, M. B., Pearman, P. B., Albert, C. H., Choler, P., De Lamo, X., Dirnböck, T., Gómez-García, D., Grytnes, J., Heegard, E., Høistad, F., Le Lay, G., Nogués-Bravo, D., Normand, S., Piédalu, C., Puscas, M., Sebastià, M.-T., Stanisci, A., Theurillat, J.-P., Trivedi, M., Vittoz, P. & Guisan, A. (2011) 20st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

Essl, F., Dullinger, S., Plutzar, C., Willner, W. & Rabitsch, W. 2011: Imprints of glacial history and current environment on correlations between endemic plant and invertebrate species richness. Journal of Biogeography, in press.

Essl, F., Dullinger, S., Rabitsch, W., Hulme, P.E, Hülber, K., Jarošík, V., Kleinbauer, I., Krausmann, F., Kühn, I., Nentwig, W., Vilà, M., Genovesi, P., Gherardi, F., Desprez- Loustau, M.-L., Roques, A. & Pyšek, P. 2011: Socio-economic legacy yields an invasion Debt (2011) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108: 203-207.

Heikkinen, R.K. Luoto, M., Leikola, N., Pöyry, J. Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Marmion, M., Fronzek, S. & Thuiller, W. (2010) Assessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria. Biodiversity and Conservation. 19: 695–723

Kleinbauer, I., Dullinger, S., Peterseil, J. & Essl, F. (2010) Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats. Biological Conservation 143: 382-390.

Maiorano, L., Falcucci, A., Zimmermann, N.E., Psomas, A., Baisero, D., Rondinini, C. and Boitani, L. (2011) Future battlegrounds for the conservation of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin. In preparation for Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Meier, E.S., Lischke. H., Schmatz, D.R. & Zimmermann N.E. (2011) Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, in press.

Thuiller, W., Lavergne, S., Roquet, C., Boulangeat, I. & Araujo, M.B. (2011) Consequences of climate change on the Tree of Life in Europe. Nature, 470, 531-534.

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